Monday, April 9, 2012

Advantage verified!

Many of you have asked if there is a way to confirm what advantage the Predictive Simulation model (PSM) used by SnG Solver has over traditional ICM equity models.  Indeed there is.

By calculating approximate Nash equilibrium strategies with different "opinions" about chip equity, and then using those strategies to play simulated poker tournaments, we can effectively isolate and quantify the advantage that one equity model has over another.

Here are the results from a run of 200,000 such simulated sit'n'go tournaments:

From this sample we can see that using PSM in place of ICM results in a .25% RoI (return on investment) for the players using PSM.  Veterans of tough 6max super/hyper-turbo SnGs, where the edges are small, will immediately appreciate just how significant an additional .25% to their RoIs would be.

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